Mark, I agree the cloud will become an integral part of the computing experience. However to suggest it will replace local access completely is nonsense. Net down = nothing can be done. Thats just silly.
Coupled with all the annoying speed issues still occurring just about everywhere and the Data Caps increasingly being a fan and the ISPs blockig ports and throttling etc so their network they can not be bothered to upgrade quick enough does not fall over...
I know that is a negative attitude but the basics are true. The system can not cope yet.
Cloud will only work properly when we have quantum computers in my opinion. It will come into its own right there and then. With the quantum transportation tech too you would only ever need a fraction of a second to fetch and send across the globe.
Your device could be just a screen and processor and bits and the OS/Data could be at home.